Pakistan’s Mediation: Has Pakistan Expelled the United States from the Gulf?
By Mian Iftikhar Ahmed
The current geo-political situation between Pakistan, the United States, Iran, and the Gulf states is the result of several major developments.
The most prominent among these is the strategic defense agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025.
Under this agreement, on April 11, 2026, advanced fighter jets and support assets of the Pakistan Air Force arrived at King Abdulaziz Air Base in the eastern sector of Saudi Arabia.
According to the Saudi Ministry of Defense, this deployment is aimed at enhancing joint military coordination and improving operational readiness, and it is part of the strategic defense cooperation between the two countries.
A clause in this agreement also states that aggression against either country will be considered aggression against both.
This agreement came at a time when the United States and Israel launched Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran on February 28, 2026, which also targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In response, Iran carried out missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, with the United Arab Emirates being the hardest hit.
In the first 48 hours, 165 ballistic and cruise missiles along with 600 drones were launched, and 63 percent of all attacks targeted the UAE.
Qatar’s LNG facilities, which supply 20 percent of the global market, were also affected.
As a result of these attacks, Gulf states, during an emergency GCC meeting, invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter, expressed readiness for collective self-defense, and activated joint air defense systems.
Various think tanks have analyzed this situation in depth.
According to Abdulaziz Sagar, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, the fall of Iranian missiles ended the option of neutrality for Gulf states, and they are now compelled to openly ally with the United States.
He further stated that Gulf states must now adopt a dual strategy for their security: maintaining relations with the United States on one hand, while also increasing defense cooperation with China and Russia so that their defense system is not paralyzed in any situation.
Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities said that US bases in the Gulf have now become targets for Iran rather than providing security.
According to her, these bases are so widely spread that effective defense has become impossible, and Iran has proven it can target multiple bases simultaneously.
Sahar Khan of the Quincy Institute analyzed that Gulf states now want to reduce their complete dependence on the United States, take responsibility for their own defense, and are expanding relations with China and Russia.
She noted that Pakistan is a prime example, having reduced its reliance on the US, launched projects like CPEC with China, and signed its own separate defense agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Joshua Yaffe of The National Interest presented five key points: Gulf states will hold the US responsible for enforcing any agreement with Iran, they will demand a multi-lateral security agreement for access to the Strait of Hormuz, they will suspend talks on expanding the Abraham Accords, and they will shift their high-tech defense purchases from the US to European companies.
As a fifth point, he added that Gulf states will start including local currencies or the Yuan in their oil and gas deals instead of the dollar, which will severely damage the US economy.
According to an analysis published in China-US Focus, America’s strategy, dubbed “Hegemony on the Cheap,” has failed.
Under this strategy, the US tried to maintain its presence in the Middle East by using its regional allies, especially Israel, as proxies while avoiding large-scale military deployment.
However, the war against Iran proved that this cheap hegemony model does not work.
Despite the elimination of Iran’s leadership, nationalist sentiment within Iranian society remains strong, and Khamenei’s death has unified the public rather than weakening the government.
Marwan Muasher of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote that the war with Iran exposed the weakness of the Gulf states.
Neither the Abraham Accords nor American military bases could protect them.
According to him, the alliance among Gulf states may now fracture because Saudi Arabia is not ready to normalize ties with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state, while the UAE has separated its relations with Israel from the Palestinian issue under the Abraham Accords.
Muasher also said that Gulf populations will now question their governments: if American bases could not protect them from Iran, why do these bases exist at all, and why are billions of dollars being spent on them?
James K. Galbraith has presented a highly significant analysis in Social Europe.
According to him, in November 2025, the Trump administration issued a National Security Strategy that clearly outlined a policy of disengagement and non-intervention from the Middle East.
Yet, just three months later, on February 28, 2026, the US attacked Iran.
Galbraith suggests three possible explanations for this wide gap: first, the US government no longer possesses the ability to formulate and implement a coherent strategy; second, some other group is running the government through a silent coup, using Trump merely as a figurehead; third, the US will eventually return to the November 2025 strategy, but only after suffering a bitter defeat, economic loss, and the collapse of its allies.
He argues that US bases have been partially destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz is closed to Western shipping, and the United States has been permanently expelled from the Gulf, whether Washington admits it or not.
Galbraith also wrote that this defeat of the US can be compared to Vietnam and Afghanistan, but it is an even greater defeat because this time the US fought a direct war and had the support of its allies, yet it still could not succeed.
According to him, this defeat will fundamentally change America’s global role, and it will no longer dare to undertake such large-scale military intervention in any region.
Pakistan’s mediation has introduced a new turn in this situation.
On April 8, 2026, just an hour and a half before Donald Trump’s deadline for military action, Pakistan’s mediation led to an agreement between the US and Iran for a ceasefire and the start of talks in Islamabad from April 10.
The Iranian ambassador termed Pakistan’s mediation as positive and fruitful.
Former Pakistani ambassador Masood Khan stated that this war is holding the entire global economy hostage, so it is essential to end it permanently.
However, differences remain: the US and Israel say the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon, while Iran and Pakistan maintain it was part of the understanding.
Iran has presented a ten-point plan, which includes maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of the right to uranium enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and an end to hostilities, including in Lebanon.
Additionally, Iran has demanded that the US close all its military bases in the Middle East and hand over responsibility for regional security to local countries.
There are several strategic reasons behind Pakistan’s mediation.
First, under the defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia were to join the war against Iran, Pakistan would be forced to provide its nuclear capabilities to Saudi Arabia, further complicating the situation.
Active mediation is the only way out of this dilemma.
Second, Pakistan’s economy depends on Gulf oil, and due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have exceeded one hundred dollars per barrel, significantly increasing Pakistan’s monthly import bill.
Third, Pakistan’s historical experience makes it suitable for mediation: in 1971, it facilitated Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to Beijing, which paved the way for Nixon’s trip to China, and in 2020, it brokered talks between the US and the Taliban.
Fourth, Pakistan has a long history of military cooperation with the US, and General Asim Munir has a personal friendship with Trump, while Pakistan shares a 1,000-kilometer border with Iran and one-fifth of its 240 million population consists of Shia Muslims.
Fifth, Pakistan itself has been severely affected by the war on terror and does not want further instability on its western border.
China’s role is also important.
On March 31, 2026, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Dar made an emergency visit to China, and the two countries jointly issued a five-point initiative: immediate ceasefire, immediate start of talks, protection of non-military targets and shipping lanes, and adherence to the UN Charter.
This five-point initiative from China was strong political support for Pakistan’s mediation.
China also made it clear that it would use all its diplomatic and economic resources for the success of this mediation.
According to a report from the Pakistan Research Center at Sichuan University, this is an effective example of cooperation between a regional power and a global power, which has greatly enhanced the legitimacy and influence of Pakistan’s mediation.
Regarding the future, think tanks state that a two-week ceasefire is a valuable opportunity, but it could also be just a temporary lull before the storm.
Trump’s diplomatic style is unpredictable, Iran remains highly vigilant about deception, especially since their Supreme Leader was martyred in the attacks, and Israel continues its strikes on Iran and intends to derail the talks.
Israel has publicly stated that it will not be bound by any agreement that allows Iran to continue its nuclear program.
According to Arab News, although Pakistan’s mediation has succeeded in achieving a ceasefire, deep mistrust, contradictory demands, and ongoing regional tensions are putting this fragile ceasefire at risk.
American think tanks have also warned that if these talks fail, a war could erupt in the region whose consequences would be difficult to predict.
In conclusion, it can be said that Pakistan has showcased its diplomatic and military importance at the international level by signing a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and mediating between the US and Iran.
America’s “Hegemony on the Cheap” strategy has failed, and it is being forced to reconsider its presence in the Gulf.
Gulf States now want to diversify their defense alliances and are fostering relations with countries like China, Russia, and Pakistan.
The upcoming talks in Islamabad will determine whether this ceasefire turns into lasting peace or remains just a temporary pause.
If this mediation succeeds, Pakistan will be able to raise its voice further in the Islamic world and at the global level, and will be invited to mediate in any major international conflict in the future.
But if it fails, the Middle East could once again move toward a major catastrophe, forcing Pakistan to endure the effects of that tension on its own borders.
This is a major diplomatic test for Pakistan, and its outcome will shape the geopolitics of the entire region for decades to come.
