Oil prices rise as Iran talks stall once again and this time, Trump’s own words are doing the pushing. Brent crude surged nearly 2% to $111.42 per barrel on Monday after the US president posted a blunt warning to Tehran on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Markets had already been watching the US-Iran peace talks update closely. Trump’s Sunday night post removed any remaining doubt about his patience.
Trump’s Warning What He Actually Said
Trump posted on Sunday that “the clock is ticking” as peace negotiations between the US and Tehran appear to be at a complete standstill. The warning came after Trump last week rejected Iran’s latest response to the White House’s peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable” after Tehran asked to separate nuclear talks from peace negotiations. US military aides have already drafted contingency plans for high-precision bombing runs and potential Special Operations ground actions targeting underground nuclear material if Trump authorises an end to the fragile April ceasefire. The oil prices rise as Iran talks stall pattern has now repeated multiple times every time diplomatic hope fades, Brent follows within hours.
Brent Crude Oil Price Monday’s Numbers
International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose 1.98% to $111.42 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures for June advanced 2.43% to $107.98 per barrel the highest this month. The Brent crude oil price has now swung across a staggering $44 range in a matter of weeks plunging from a high of $144 per barrel to below $100 before rebounding again as signals about a US-Iran deal kept shifting. The EIA expects Brent prices to remain around $106 per barrel in May and June before falling to an average of $89 in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 assuming the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening from late May.
Why Inventories Are Making It Worse
The US-Iran peace talks update vacuum is not the only driver pushing oil prices live higher. Global inventories are now the second major factor. More than ten weeks after the war began, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed one billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day now shut in an unprecedented supply shock. The IEA warned that “rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruptions may herald future price spikes ahead.” JPMorgan forecast that oil inventories could fall to a critically low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz remains closed, while Rapidan Energy warned that product inventories could hit critical levels as early as July or August.
The Strait of Hormuz Still the Core Problem
Every oil prices live data point traces back to the same waterway. Shipments through the Strait averaged just 3.8 million barrels per day in early April compared with more than 20 million barrels per day in February before the crisis. Exports through alternative routes had increased to 7.2 million barrels per day, but the overall loss in oil exports still exceeds 13 million barrels per day. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil remains disrupted as Iran continues attempting to manage traffic and threaten shipping fees in the waterway while the US Navy enforces a punishing blockade on Iranian ports. Until the Strait reopens, oil prices rise as Iran talks stall will remain the defining energy story of 2026.
US-Iran War Who Is Winning
The US-Iran war who is winning question has no clean answer. Militarily, the US and Israel have inflicted severe damage global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, with OPEC+ production falling 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month. But Iran is winning economically through the Hormuz closure. Inside Iran, a fuel crisis has begun to emerge with long lines at gas stations yet Tehran’s control of the strait continues to impose enormous global economic costs that have given it leverage in negotiations it would not otherwise possess.
Iran Attack on Israel Proxy Tensions Rising
The Iran attack on Israel today update picture is also darkening. Earlier Sunday, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on the phone ahead of a planned Situation Room meeting on Tuesday to weigh major military options. The two leaders discussed the conflict in the Middle East as well as Trump’s recent visit to China, where Xi Jinping offered to help bring about an end to the war. Proxy tensions are flaring across the region simultaneously, adding further instability to a ceasefire Trump himself has described as being on “life support.”
What Comes Next The Summer Price Warning
Higher prices for oil and fuel are likely ahead of peak summer demand as inventories continue drawing down rapidly, the IEA warned. JPMorgan analysts expect oil prices to remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of the year, averaging $97 for 2026 while highlighting that there would not be a quick normalisation even once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Markets are now watching two variables above everything else whether Trump enters the Situation Room on Tuesday and authorises new strikes, and whether Iran makes any diplomatic move before that meeting. Every hour of silence from Tehran pushes oil prices rise as Iran talks stall headlines further toward crisis territory.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are oil prices rising right now?
Oil prices rise as Iran talks stall for two compounding reasons. First, Trump’s Sunday warning that Iran’s “clock is ticking” raised the probability of renewed US military strikes which would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed even longer. Second, global oil inventories are drawing at a record pace, with cumulative supply losses already exceeding one billion barrels. Every failed US-Iran peace talks update removes a potential catalyst for price relief and adds urgency to a market already running dangerously low on buffer.
How high is the Brent crude oil price today?
As of Monday May 18, the Brent crude oil price stands at $111.42 per barrel up nearly 2% in a single session. WTI is at $107.98. The Brent crude oil price has swung across a $44 range in recent weeks hitting $144 at its peak and briefly falling below $100 on ceasefire optimism before rebounding. The EIA projects Brent will average around $106 per barrel in May and June before easing toward $89 in Q4 if the Strait reopens on schedule.
What is the current status of US-Iran peace talks?
The US-Iran peace talks update as of May 18 is deeply stalled. Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal last week as “totally unacceptable” after Tehran demanded nuclear talks be separated from broader peace negotiations. Trump has now said he will no longer send delegations overseas demanding Iran travel to the US or speak by phone instead. Iran has not accepted either condition. Trump is scheduled to enter the Situation Room on Tuesday to review military options, with the ceasefire he himself called “on life support” hanging by a thread.
