(Publish from Houston Texas USA)
(By Mian Iftikhar Ahmed)
Middle East war Pakistan: Risks, opportunities, and strategic policy directions
Current Situation, Potential Scenarios, Pakistan’s Geographical and Strategic Importance : The new war erupting in the Middle East has plunged the entire world into concern and the effects of this war could have far-reaching impacts on neighboring countries like Pakistan. America and Israel have launched extensive military operations against Iran and numerous senior officials including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been killed while the scope of this war is gradually expanding and now Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are also under Iranian attack. Since we do not know how this war starting in the Middle East will progress or where it will end, it is better that we consider several broad possibilities and nothing can be said with certainty about how this war will proceed and where it will conclude. In such a situation it is better that all possible scenarios be considered and preparations be made to deal with every possible situation because the first possible scenario is that America and Israel with the support of several important countries form a powerful alliance and have the possibility to defeat the resistance led by Iran. In this case their presence or influence on Pakistan’s western borders will increase and some other countries of the region may also join them and then what demands will they make of us and how will we respond to them. In this situation it is necessary to consider now the possible demands that might be made of Pakistan and their responses because the second possible scenario is that the war could last longer than a few weeks and the region will continue to suffer from instability while economic effects will become more severe and internal rebellions and public unrest could also increase rapidly. In such circumstances Pakistan will have to manage its internal situation as well as adopt a balanced policy at the regional level and the third possible scenario looking at initial conditions is also possible that Iran stands firm and even gains some advantage. In such a situation what steps might the attacking countries take to save their reputation or in desperation and this could become an existential threat for Israel and it could move towards using the Samson Option meaning using nuclear weapons to destroy certain areas even if it involves the risk of self-destruction. This was also considered in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Israel was facing severe losses and a less extreme step could be to further expand the scope of the war which could plunge the entire world especially Middle Eastern countries into severe crisis. In light of all these possible scenarios Pakistan should remain prepared for every situation and ensure the protection of its national interests.
Pakistan is located at a geographically very important position and its western borders meet Iran and Afghanistan which can be directly affected by the situation in the Middle East while Pakistan’s proximity to the Persian Gulf and access to the Indian Ocean make it important for regional and global powers. Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities give it a special position in the region and these capabilities also impose responsibilities that Pakistan must ensure the protection of its nuclear assets and remain prepared to deal with any unexpected situation. Pakistan’s economy is already facing difficulties and the Middle East war could increase oil prices which will put further pressure on Pakistan’s economy while remittances from Pakistanis living abroad could be affected and exports could decrease. Pakistan’s internal situation is also worrying and political instability terrorist incidents and economic difficulties can create unrest among the public while the effects of the Middle East war could complicate these issues further. A large portion of Pakistan’s population consists of young people and these young people need to be utilized in a positive direction so that they can participate in the country’s development and perform national services in difficult times. Pakistan’s defense system is important at the regional level but it needs to be further improved and along with acquiring modern technology attention must also be paid to the training of the armed forces. Pakistan has no shortage of natural resources but these resources need to be utilized properly so that the country’s economy can be strengthened and the needs of the people can be met. Pakistan’s education system also needs improvement because educated youth can put the country on the path to development and make wise decisions in difficult times.
Importance of Relations with Neighboring Countries, Reassessment of Relations with Global Powers
Pakistan’s neighboring countries include Iran Afghanistan China India and Central Asian states and the Middle East war can affect Pakistan’s relations with all these countries. Iran is Pakistan’s western neighbor and the center of the Middle East war while Pakistan has historical religious and cultural relations with Iran and there are also trade and energy agreements between the two countries. In case of an attack on Iran Pakistan will have to reassess its relations with its western neighbor and Pakistan will try to ensure the protection of its borders with Iran as well as maintain diplomatic relations. Afghanistan holds strategic importance for Pakistan and Afghan territory should not be used against Pakistan under any circumstances while after the Middle East war the situation in Afghanistan could become more complicated and Pakistan will have to play a role in ensuring stability in Afghanistan. China is Pakistan’s longtime friend and strategic partner and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is further strengthening relations between the two countries while China’s role in the Middle East war could be important and Pakistan needs to further strengthen its relations with China. Relations between Pakistan and India have historically been tense but the Middle East war could create common regional security concerns and if India realizes the gravity of the situation it might come closer. The threat before us could make such an arrangement possible even if temporarily and both countries should work together for regional peace and stability. Central Asian states are also important for Pakistan and trade and energy agreements with these countries are in Pakistan’s interest while the effects of the Middle East war could also impact these countries.
Pakistan’s relations with America have been subject to ups and downs and America has used Pakistan on various occasions and later abandoned it while after the Afghanistan war America’s behavior has been a lesson for Pakistan and in the Middle East war there is a need to reassess relations with America. America’s record shows that it abandons its partners after its interests are fulfilled and Pakistan must understand this reality that extreme caution is needed in relations with America. Pakistan’s relations with Russia have improved in recent years and after the Ukraine war Russia has moved further away from the West and its relations with China are strengthening while Russia’s role in the Middle East war could be important and Pakistan needs to further strengthen its relations with Russia. China is Pakistan’s biggest friend and trading partner and strengthening relations with China is in Pakistan’s interest while the China Pakistan Economic Corridor project is taking relations between the two countries to new heights. The European Union is an important market for Pakistan’s exports and the economic effects of the Middle East war will also affect Europe while Pakistan will have to try to maintain its trade relations with European countries. Pakistan has deep relations with Muslim countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia and together with these countries Pakistan can play a role in establishing peace in the Middle East. Pakistan should maintain balanced relations with all global powers instead of becoming too close to any one power so that Pakistan’s interests can remain protected in any situation.
Economic Impacts and Preparations, Energy Security and Alternative Sources
The economic effects of the Middle East war will affect the entire world and oil prices could increase which will put severe pressure on oil importing countries like Pakistan while Pakistan will have to find alternative energy sources and take energy conservation measures. Remittances from Pakistanis living abroad are an important part of Pakistan’s economy and millions of Pakistanis reside in the Middle East especially Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries while in case of war their jobs could be affected and remittances could decrease. Pakistan’s exports could also be affected and new markets will need to be found for exports of textiles rice sports goods and other products while local industries must be promoted to reduce dependence on imports. Austerity has now become an inevitable necessity and Pakistan will have to reduce unnecessary expenses and utilize resources on a priority basis while efforts must be made to meet food requirements by focusing on the agricultural sector. Pakistan should increase local production of goods and minimize imports so that external pressure on the economy can be reduced. Pakistan will have to take steps to attract foreign investment and especially try to bring investment from countries like China Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Pakistan should promote the digital economy and train youth in the IT sector so that they can earn foreign exchange by providing services abroad. Pakistan should promote the tourism sector because Pakistan has numerous places of natural beauty that can attract foreign tourists.
Energy is a major issue for Pakistan and the Middle East war could increase energy prices which will put severe pressure on Pakistan’s economy while Pakistan will have to find alternative energy sources. Projects to import electricity from Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries need to be expedited and the CASA 1000 project is important for Pakistan which can provide cheap electricity to Pakistan. The North South Gas Pipeline project needs to be completed and work on this project is ongoing between Russia and Pakistan which can provide natural gas to Pakistan and help deal with the energy crisis. Attention must be paid to renewable energy projects and efforts must be made to meet energy needs through solar wind and hydro power projects because Pakistan has immense potential for solar energy. Energy conservation measures must also be taken and public awareness must be created and the use of energy efficient appliances must be promoted while modern technology must be used for energy conservation in the industrial sector. Work must also be done on coal power projects because Pakistan has vast coal reserves and cheap electricity can be generated by utilizing them. Nuclear energy projects must also continue because nuclear electricity is a cheap and reliable source and China is assisting Pakistan in this regard. Pakistan should promote private investment in the energy sector so that energy production can be increased and relief from load shedding can be achieved.
Food Security and Agricultural Reforms, Internal Preparations and National Consensus
Food security is an important issue for Pakistan and the Middle East war could also affect food prices while Pakistan must pay special attention to the agricultural sector. There is a need to increase production of wheat rice sugarcane and other important crops and farmers must be provided with cheap fertilizer seeds and other facilities so that they can achieve maximum production. Water resources must be utilized efficiently and construction of dams repair of canals and promotion of modern irrigation methods must be undertaken because water scarcity is a major problem for Pakistan. Food reserves must also be increased and the government must maintain food reserves to provide food to the people when needed while action must be taken against illegal hoarding and profiteering. Attention must be paid to agricultural research and new seeds and fertilizers must be introduced to increase production while steps must also be taken to deal with the effects of climate change. Farmers must be provided access to markets and steps must be taken to ensure they get fair prices so that they can obtain proper rates for their crops. Provision of agricultural loans must be made easier so that farmers can purchase modern equipment and technology and increase production. Pakistan should promote organic farming because demand for organic products is rapidly increasing in the international market and Pakistan can perform better in this sector.
To deal with the possible effects of the Middle East war Pakistan will have to make preparations at the internal level and national consensus is the most important requirement that all political parties institutions and stakeholders must come together to form a common agenda. The establishment of an emergency cabinet is a critical need of the time and this cabinet should include experts from defense foreign affairs finance energy and other important sectors so that this cabinet can review the situation on a daily basis and make immediate decisions. Building public trust is extremely important and the public must be informed about the situation and assured that the government is prepared to deal with every possible situation while it is better to inform them of facts rather than giving false hopes. Religious and political leaders must also play a positive role and promote sectarian harmony and avoid any kind of intolerance while speeches and statements that incite public emotions must be avoided. The media must also fulfill its responsibility and identify fake news and rumors and inform the public of facts while prioritizing national interest. Civil society organizations must also play an active role and create awareness among the public and provide assistance in government efforts. Young people must be encouraged to participate in national service and by joining various volunteer organizations they can perform national services and be useful for the country in difficult times.
Defense Preparations and National Security, Diplomatic Strategy and International Role
Pakistan’s defense capabilities are important at the regional level and in view of the Middle East war there is a need to reassess these capabilities while security of the western borders must be ensured and additional personnel must be deployed on the borders with Iran and Afghanistan. Protection of nuclear assets is extremely important and Pakistan must ensure that its nuclear assets are safe from any kind of threat while the command and control system must be made more effective. Cyber security must also be improved and teams of experts must be formed to deal with possible cyber attacks and necessary technology must be acquired because the importance of cyber attacks has greatly increased in modern warfare. The intelligence network must be made more active and activities in neighboring countries and the region must be closely monitored and timely information must be provided so that any potential threat can be dealt with in advance. Pakistan’s defense industry must be further strengthened and self-sufficiency must be achieved in the production of weapons and ammunition so that dependence on foreign countries is not necessary in any situation. Along with acquiring modern technology Pakistan must also pay special attention to the training of its armed forces and align them with modern warfare requirements. Pakistan should conduct joint military exercises with friendly countries so that the experience of the forces can be increased and mutual cooperation can be promoted.
Pakistan must adopt a balanced and effective diplomatic strategy and play an effective role in the United Nations and present resolutions for ceasefire and peace while informing the international community about the situation in the Middle East. Pakistan has an important role in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the organization must be activated and consensus must be developed among Muslim countries while Pakistan can play a positive role in improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan can also play an active role in the Non-Aligned Movement and must highlight the issues of developing countries and raise voice for the protection of their rights. Bilateral diplomatic relations must be further strengthened and high-level contacts must be maintained with China Russia Turkey Saudi Arabia and other important countries so that diplomatic cooperation can be promoted. Pakistan should play a role in establishing peace in the Middle East and engage in dialogue with all parties so that the war can end and stability can return to the region. Pakistan should also highlight the Kashmir issue at international forums and bring Indian atrocities in occupied Kashmir before the world so that the international community pays attention to this issue. Pakistan should play a role for stability in Afghanistan and work with the Afghan government so that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorism.
Public Awareness and Citizens’ Responsibilities, Future Strategy and National Priorities
Awareness of the public about the current situation is very important and the media must play a positive role in this regard while identifying fake news and rumors and informing the public of facts. The public must also fulfill their responsibilities and adopt austerity avoid unnecessary expenses and follow government instructions while prioritizing national interest over personal interest. Local communities must be organized and help each other in difficult times and find solutions to collective problems while many issues can be resolved through mutual cooperation. Young people must be encouraged to participate in national service and by joining various volunteer organizations they can perform national services and be useful for the country in difficult times. Women should also participate in national service and they can come out of their homes and play their role in various sectors and participate in the country’s development. The educated class should create awareness among the public and inform them of their rights and duties so that the public can make better decisions and work in the interest of the country. The public should critically evaluate leaders and vote only for those who can truly serve the country and solve the problems of the people.
Pakistan should be internally united and prioritize national interest and all political parties institutions and people must work together so that Pakistan can stand firmly in difficult times. Relations with neighboring countries must be strengthened and mutual trust must be developed with Iran Afghanistan China and other countries so that regional cooperation can be promoted and common issues can be resolved. Balanced relations must be maintained with global powers and excessive closeness to any one power can be harmful while good relations with all countries are in Pakistan’s interest. The economy must be strengthened and local industries must be promoted exports must be increased and foreign investment must be attracted so that Pakistan can become economically self-sufficient. Defense capabilities must be further improved and modern technology must be acquired and the armed forces must be trained so that Pakistan’s defense can be possible in every situation. Oratory and emotional statements must be avoided because they cause reverse damage and concrete actions create confidence among the public and silence keeps the enemy guessing. Pakistan should view the current situation as an opportunity and despite difficulties Pakistan can strengthen its position and play an important role in regional politics. The future is certainly uncertain but not impossible and Pakistan has resources capabilities and capable people and the need is to use them properly to build public confidence to strengthen institutions and to prioritize national interest. Whatever the outcome of the Middle East war Pakistan has to protect its national interests and this requires foresight strategy and national unity and Pakistan has the ability to deal with these challenges and it is hoped that it will succeed.
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