Economic losses caused by natural disasters worldwide reached an estimated $100 billion in the first six months of 2026, according to reinsurance giant Swiss Re, although the figure was significantly lower than the losses recorded during the same period last year.
Swiss Re said the estimated losses were down from approximately $152 billion in the first half of 2025 and were also around 10% below the average recorded over the past decade.
Despite the decline, the reinsurer warned that the lower figure should not be interpreted as a sign that the global disaster risk is easing.
Severe Weather Continues to Cause Major Damage
The first half of the year was marked by destructive weather events, including severe storms in the United States and deadly earthquakes in Venezuela in June.
While the combined economic impact was lower than last year’s exceptionally high figure, Swiss Re cautioned that the second half of the year could bring significantly greater losses.
The North Atlantic hurricane season is a particular concern because major tropical storms can generate enormous insured and uninsured losses within a short period.
“A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away,” said Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s director of Catastrophe Perils.
He warned that a single major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire could quickly change the overall picture for 2026.
European Heatwave Raises Wildfire Concerns
Extreme heat across parts of Europe since June has already contributed to an early wildfire season, particularly in France and Spain.
Thousands of homes, businesses and pieces of infrastructure have reportedly been damaged or destroyed by fires, highlighting the growing threat posed by extreme heat and dry conditions.
Swiss Re said wildfires still account for a relatively small proportion of insured catastrophe losses in Europe compared with some other hazards.
However, the company identified wildfire as the fastest-growing weather-related peril globally.
According to Swiss Re, insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by approximately 8% to 11% annually since 1970, after adjustments for inflation and other factors.
El Niño Could Increase Weather Risks
Swiss Re also highlighted the potential influence of the El Niño climate pattern, which began in June and is expected to strengthen later in the year.
The weather phenomenon can affect atmospheric and oceanic conditions across large parts of the world, potentially changing the frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events.
Swiss Re said El Niño could influence tropical cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific, while also affecting the risks of flooding, wildfires and other weather extremes in other regions.
The potential impact adds another layer of uncertainty to the global catastrophe outlook for the remainder of 2026.
Disaster Risks Remain Elevated
Although global catastrophe losses have fallen compared with the first half of 2025, Swiss Re said the underlying factors driving long-term losses have not changed.
Growing populations and expanding infrastructure in hazard-prone areas mean that more homes, businesses and assets are exposed to natural disasters.
At the same time, higher construction and reconstruction costs mean that rebuilding after major catastrophes is becoming increasingly expensive.
These trends could continue pushing disaster-related economic and insured losses higher even if the number or severity of individual events fluctuates from year to year.
Second Half of Year Could Bring Higher Losses
The $100 billion loss estimate provides only a snapshot of the year’s disaster impact.
Historically, catastrophe losses can rise sharply during the second half of the year, particularly when major hurricanes occur in the North Atlantic.
Swiss Re’s warning underscores the uncertainty surrounding the remainder of 2026.
A relatively quiet start to the year does not guarantee a low-loss year. A major hurricane, earthquake, wildfire or other extreme event could dramatically increase global economic losses in the months ahead.
For governments, insurers and communities, the latest figures highlight the continuing importance of disaster preparedness, climate resilience and investment in infrastructure capable of withstanding increasingly costly natural hazards.
