(Publish from Houston Texas USA)
(Mian Iftikhar Ahmad)
China and Russia’s rapidly expanding military cooperation has generated a new wave of global anxiety, with many analysts calling it the beginning of a new Cold War in the twenty-first century. As the United States attempts to preserve its global dominance by building fresh alliances, China and Russia are laying the foundations of a powerful strategic and defense bloc that could reshape the geopolitical landscape across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Their cooperation is not limited to arms exchanges or joint military exercises; it encompasses advanced technologies, defense industrial integration, intelligence sharing, space collaboration, cyber warfare capabilities, and naval strategies. This growing synergy has deeply alarmed the United States and its European allies because Beijing and Moscow seek to replace the US-led unipolar order with a multipolar global structure ambition that has become the core driver of this emerging power shift.
In the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s rising tensions with the United States over Taiwan, both nations have become each other’s strategic lifeline. For Russia, China has evolved into its most crucial economic and technological support, enabling Moscow to withstand Western sanctions. For China, Russia serves as a geopolitical shield that reduces Western pressure and helps Beijing counter America’s military encirclement in the Asia-Pacific. Their joint naval patrols in the Pacific, cooperation on hypersonic missile systems, and advancements in drone technology, collaborative defense production, and new military logistics routes are altering the global balance of power at an unprecedented pace. Their coordination extends to major strategic platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, the Eurasian Economic Union, and Silk Road security networks-platforms that directly challenge American global influence.
Consequently, the United States is strengthening its own alliances, forming new security architectures with India, Japan, Australia, and Europe, and engaging in technology blockades, economic sanctions, and military positioning to counter the China-Russia axis. Yet the reality remains that both nations, through their coordinated military rise, are pushing the world toward a new geopolitical divide-the central fuel of what resembles a new Cold War.
In this emerging confrontation, Pakistan finds itself in a uniquely delicate position. Its geography, defense needs, economic challenges, diplomatic compulsions, and regional security vulnerabilities require it to maintain a careful balance rather than tilt entirely toward one global camp. Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China is decades old. CPEC, the JF-17 Thunder program, missile cooperation, naval modernization, defense technology transfers, and economic assistance. These factors place China at the heart of Pakistan’s foreign policy.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s relationship with the United States-military training, intelligence cooperation, the F-16 program, counterterrorism support, and financial stability through institutions like the IMF-makes Washington an indispensable partner as well. In recent years, relations between Pakistan and Russia have also improved significantly, particularly in energy, trade, and defense. On Afghanistan, both countries share common concerns. However, Russia’s deep alignment with China brings Pakistan closer to the China-Russia bloc automatically, raising questions about how far Islamabad can go without upsetting Washington.
Pakistan’s biggest dilemma is whether it can afford to upset the United States or whether it can risk distancing itself from China and Russia. In reality, Pakistan’s economic fragility, political instability, vulnerability to terrorism, and defense requirements force it to adopt a highly flexible foreign policy. Rather than becoming part of a single bloc, Pakistan sees its survival in pursuing a balanced and multi-vector diplomacy-engaging with all major powers simultaneously without fully committing to any one side.
If the new Cold War intensifies further, Pakistan will face three major challenges: first, increasing US pressure to reduce its strategic closeness with China; second, China’s desire to pull Pakistan even more firmly into its regional security network; and third, Russia’s expectation that Pakistan will align with the emerging anti-West bloc. For Pakistan’s political leadership and military establishment, navigating these competing expectations will be extremely difficult, as both sides offer opportunities and pose risks. Distancing from the United States could complicate Pakistan’s access to IMF assistance, technology, military upgrades, and Western markets. Moving away from China and Russia, on the other hand, could damage Pakistan’s relationship with its most reliable defense and economic partner.
Given this landscape, Pakistan’s best possible strategy is to continue its policy of strategic balancing-leveraging its geostrategic location, defense capabilities, and diplomatic relevance to avoid becoming a casualty of great-power rivalry and instead turning global competition into an opportunity. The future shape of this new Cold War will depend on the Ukraine conflict, the Taiwan question, tensions in the Middle East, global economic trends, and US-China relations. But for Pakistan, the safest path forward is maintaining a careful equilibrium that protects its national interests, preserves its sovereignty, and ensures that it remains a responsible and strategically relevant state amid the China–Russia military cooperation and the emerging global divide.
About the Author
