(Publish from Houston Texas USA)
(Mian Iftikhar Ahmad)
Bangladesh’s New Government Eyes Balanced Foreign Policy
Bangladesh’s new government and its relations with Pakistan, India and China must be understood in the context of a long and complex political history. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has sought to establish itself as a developing state founded upon secular democratic principles. The post independence era was marked by institutional restructuring, political experimentation and efforts to stabilize governance. Over different periods, the relationship between the military establishment and political parties significantly shaped the country’s domestic stability as well as its foreign policy orientation. These internal dynamics influenced how Bangladesh positioned itself within South Asia and beyond.
The new government is expected to pursue a carefully balanced foreign policy that keeps regional equilibrium at the forefront. Bangladesh’s political experiences, shifting public trends and historical sensitivities encourage policymakers to maintain sovereignty while engaging constructively with neighboring powers. Public opinion within Bangladesh remains deeply aware of national independence and territorial integrity, therefore any external alignment must be calibrated to avoid perceptions of dependency. The leadership is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach, strengthening economic and security partnerships while safeguarding strategic autonomy.
Relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh remain historically sensitive. The events of 1971 created political and emotional complexities that have influenced bilateral engagement for decades. In the years following independence, both countries made intermittent efforts to normalize diplomatic ties. Various governments attempted to rebuild confidence through official visits, trade initiatives and multilateral cooperation. However, political disagreements and unresolved historical narratives affected mutual trust. Public sentiment in Bangladesh has at times limited the pace of rapprochement, requiring both states to proceed cautiously.
Despite these historical challenges, shared interests continue to provide opportunities for constructive engagement. Economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, academic collaboration and agricultural trade represent practical areas where progress can be made without reopening political wounds. The new Bangladeshi government appears interested in expanding bilateral trade with Pakistan, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, agricultural commodities and light engineering goods. Enhanced trade could contribute to diversification of export markets for both countries. There is also potential for dialogue in the defense sector, particularly in training exchanges and professional military education.
Pakistan and Bangladesh may further cooperate within regional security forums where common interests exist, including counterterrorism coordination, maritime safety and climate related security challenges. However, memories of the past continue to influence sections of the Bangladeshi population. As a result, the new government will likely maintain a gradual and carefully measured pace in improving ties with Pakistan. For its part, Pakistan must emphasize mutual respect, non interference and acknowledgment of Bangladesh’s sovereign identity. Only through sensitivity and consistency can bilateral trust be strengthened.
India and Bangladesh, by contrast, have experienced relatively stable and expanding relations over the past decade. Economic integration has deepened, particularly in trade, connectivity, energy supply and cross border infrastructure. India has financed and supported multiple development projects in Bangladesh, contributing to road networks, rail connectivity and power generation. These initiatives have strengthened interdependence and facilitated regional trade flows.
Nevertheless, concerns have occasionally emerged within Bangladesh regarding perceived Indian influence in domestic political processes. Some segments of society believe that excessive proximity to India may undermine policy independence. Such perceptions, whether accurate or exaggerated, influence electoral narratives and public discourse. The new government must therefore manage its relationship with India in a way that protects sovereignty while preserving economic cooperation.
Trade between the two countries has expanded significantly, creating interlinked supply chains in textiles, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. Energy cooperation, including electricity imports and joint grid connectivity, has further integrated the two economies. If India maintains a framework grounded in equality and mutual benefit, bilateral partnership can grow sustainably. However, any attempt to dominate decision making or expand influence beyond agreed parameters could provoke domestic backlash within Bangladesh.
China has emerged as another major partner for Bangladesh in recent years. Infrastructure development has been the centerpiece of this relationship. Chinese investment in ports, highways, bridges and industrial zones has contributed to modernization efforts. Bilateral trade has expanded steadily, and cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative has produced tangible outcomes. These projects aim to enhance connectivity, facilitate exports and integrate Bangladesh more deeply into regional value chains.
Defense cooperation between China and Bangladesh has also expanded. Military training programs, technology transfer and procurement of defense equipment have strengthened institutional ties. For Bangladesh, diversification of defense partnerships provides strategic flexibility. The new government is expected to maintain strong relations with China while ensuring that such engagement does not alienate other regional actors.
To preserve strategic balance, Bangladesh must simultaneously cultivate effective relations with Pakistan, India and China. Overreliance on any single partner could constrain diplomatic maneuverability. A diversified foreign policy enhances bargaining capacity and reduces vulnerability.
If a former prime minister currently residing in India under political asylum becomes the subject of a formal extradition request, the implications would be considerable. The issue would carry legal, political and diplomatic dimensions. Bangladesh would need to proceed strictly within constitutional and judicial frameworks to avoid perceptions of political retaliation. India, in turn, would be required to respond through established legal channels and bilateral agreements. Mishandling such a sensitive matter could strain otherwise stable relations.
Regional diplomacy in South Asia remains delicate and highly interdependent. The new government of Bangladesh faces the challenge of strengthening economic growth while maintaining balanced security partnerships. By combining prudence, transparency and respect for sovereignty, Bangladesh can reposition itself as a stable and confident regional actor.
The new government will launch more projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, which will increase employment opportunities in the country.
The economic policy of Bangladesh’s new government places macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth at the center of its agenda. Over the past decade, Bangladesh maintained an average GDP growth rate between 6 and 7 percent, positioning itself among the faster growing economies in South Asia. This growth was largely driven by the ready made garments sector, remittances from overseas workers and gradual expansion in domestic consumption. However, structural weaknesses in infrastructure, energy supply and financial governance limited the full realization of industrial potential. The new administration recognizes that without addressing these bottlenecks, long term growth could slow and external vulnerabilities could increase.
In the 2026 national budget, increased allocations were announced for priority sectors including energy, water management, agricultural modernization and export oriented industries. Infrastructure development has been given special emphasis, particularly transport corridors, port expansion and logistics modernization. Under ongoing Belt and Road Initiative cooperation, further investment in highways, rail connectivity and port facilities is expected to improve regional trade integration. Economists argue that if these projects are completed on schedule and managed transparently, Bangladesh’s export capacity could increase by 15 to 20 percent over the medium term. Enhanced logistics efficiency would reduce production costs and strengthen competitiveness in global markets.
The textile and garment industry, which accounts for the majority of export earnings, remains central to economic planning. By diversifying export products beyond low value apparel toward higher value textiles, pharmaceuticals and light engineering goods, Bangladesh can reduce dependence on a narrow export base. Expansion of special economic zones is also planned to attract foreign direct investment. These zones are expected to create employment opportunities, particularly for youth and women, thereby reducing unemployment pressures. Stable energy supply remains essential for this transformation.
To address chronic energy shortages, the government has announced expanded investment in renewable energy sources including solar power, wind energy and small hydroelectric projects. Diversification of the energy mix aims to reduce reliance on imported fuel and stabilize long term costs. Improved energy security would directly support industrial expansion and export growth. Policymakers believe that energy sector reform, combined with private sector participation, can gradually enhance self reliance and reduce fiscal pressure.
Trade relations with Pakistan represent an area of untapped potential. Annual bilateral trade currently stands at approximately 1.2 billion dollars, consisting mainly of textiles, agricultural commodities, chemicals and machinery. The new government seeks to increase this volume to around 2 billion dollars through improved trade facilitation, reduction of non tariff barriers and enhanced shipping connectivity. Strengthening chambers of commerce cooperation and organizing trade exhibitions could stimulate business to business engagement.
In the defense sphere, limited but meaningful cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh remains possible. Joint training exercises, professional military education exchanges and maritime security dialogue could contribute to confidence building. Enhanced defense understanding may also strengthen cooperation within multilateral forums addressing counterterrorism and disaster response. Analysts suggest that incremental progress in defense ties would positively influence broader diplomatic relations and reduce lingering mistrust.
Managing economic and defense balance with India continues to be both an opportunity and a challenge. Over the past five years, India has invested nearly 4 billion dollars in Bangladesh, primarily in infrastructure, transport connectivity and energy projects. Electricity imports from India have helped stabilize Bangladesh’s power supply during peak demand periods. Cross border rail and road links have facilitated trade and people to people contact. Bilateral trade volume has reached approximately 10 billion dollars annually, encompassing pharmaceuticals, textiles, agricultural goods and consumer products.
Despite these gains, domestic political narratives in Bangladesh often emphasize the importance of safeguarding sovereignty. Any perception that India seeks to influence internal political outcomes could provoke strong public reaction. Therefore, the new government is likely to pursue economic engagement with caution, ensuring transparency in agreements and equitable distribution of benefits. Defense cooperation with India may remain limited to technical collaboration, training programs and maritime safety initiatives, rather than deeper strategic alignment.
China’s economic role in Bangladesh has expanded significantly during the past decade. Approximately 6 billion dollars worth of infrastructure projects including ports, highways and bridges have been completed with Chinese assistance. These projects aim to enhance connectivity between industrial zones and export gateways. Chinese financing has contributed to modernization of key transport corridors, thereby supporting trade efficiency.
Defense cooperation between China and Bangladesh includes military training programs, supply of defense equipment and collaboration in naval modernization. For Bangladesh, maintaining diversified defense partnerships ensures strategic autonomy. The new government is expected to continue participation in Belt and Road projects, anticipating that further investment will generate employment opportunities and stimulate regional development. Economic analysts estimate that timely completion of planned projects could add between 1.5 and 2 percent to GDP growth while enhancing export competitiveness.
If the former prime minister currently residing in India becomes subject to a formal request for return, the economic and diplomatic implications could be sensitive. Legal proceedings must be conducted in accordance with constitutional provisions and international agreements. Mishandling the issue could disrupt trade flows or delay joint projects. Therefore, both governments would need to coordinate carefully to avoid escalation.
Through balanced economic reform, diversified trade partnerships and cautious security cooperation, Bangladesh’s new government seeks to strengthen national resilience. Sustainable growth, energy security and prudent diplomacy will determine whether the country can consolidate its position as a stable and emerging regional economy.
Bangladesh’s defense policy prioritizes modernization and capability, and defense cooperation with Pakistan includes joint training exercises.
Bangladesh’s defense policy under the new government emphasizes modernization, capacity enhancement and strategic self reliance. In an increasingly complex regional security environment, Dhaka recognizes that economic growth must be supported by credible defense preparedness. The military budget in the previous fiscal year stood at approximately 5.1 billion dollars, covering personnel expenditures, modernization of equipment, training programs and border surveillance systems. The new administration has indicated an increase of nearly 7 percent in defense allocations, reflecting concerns related to maritime security, border management and technological upgrading. This increase is not aimed at confrontation but at strengthening deterrence and ensuring national sovereignty.
One of the central pillars of defense modernization is maritime capability. Bangladesh’s geographic position along the Bay of Bengal makes naval security particularly important. Protection of sea lanes, offshore energy installations and fishing zones requires enhanced surveillance and fleet modernization. Investment in patrol vessels, radar systems and coastal monitoring infrastructure has therefore become a priority. Strengthening maritime domain awareness also contributes to combating piracy, smuggling and illegal trafficking. The government views maritime security not only as a defense issue but also as an economic necessity linked to trade and energy exploration.
In this context, cooperation with Pakistan in the defense sector may include joint training exercises, professional military education exchanges and dialogue on maritime coordination. While defense ties between the two countries remain limited due to historical sensitivities, gradual engagement focused on technical collaboration could build mutual trust. Exchange programs between military academies and participation in multilateral exercises may provide neutral platforms for constructive interaction. If managed carefully, such initiatives could contribute to broader diplomatic normalization.
At the same time, Bangladesh must carefully calibrate its defense relationship with India. Given the long and porous land border shared by the two countries, border security coordination remains essential. Joint mechanisms addressing cross border crime, trafficking and accidental incursions are important for maintaining stability. However, Bangladesh is unlikely to enter into any arrangement that could be interpreted domestically as compromising sovereignty. Defense engagement with India may therefore remain focused on confidence building measures, disaster response cooperation and maritime safety coordination rather than formal strategic alignment.
China continues to play a prominent role in Bangladesh’s defense procurement and modernization. Over the past decade, collaboration has included supply of naval vessels, aircraft and communication systems. Training exchanges and technical support have strengthened institutional capacity. For Bangladesh, diversification of suppliers reduces dependence on any single country and enhances bargaining leverage. The new government is expected to continue defense engagement with China while ensuring that transparency and fiscal sustainability guide procurement decisions.
Strategically, Bangladesh aims to avoid becoming an arena for great power competition. The Indian Ocean region has witnessed growing interest from multiple global actors, and the Bay of Bengal is increasingly viewed as geopolitically significant. Dhaka’s approach is likely to emphasize neutrality, peaceful coexistence and balanced partnerships. By maintaining working relations with Pakistan, India and China simultaneously, Bangladesh can minimize strategic vulnerability and preserve diplomatic flexibility.
Defense planning is also increasingly linked with nontraditional security threats. Climate change poses serious risks to Bangladesh, including rising sea levels, cyclones and displacement. The armed forces are frequently deployed for disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. Investment in logistics, engineering units and rapid response capabilities therefore serves both military and civilian purposes. Strengthening resilience against climate related disasters enhances national security in a broader sense.
Economic strength and defense capability are interconnected. A stable macroeconomic environment enables sustainable defense spending without excessive fiscal strain. Conversely, credible security arrangements protect trade routes and investor confidence. The government’s long term strategy appears to integrate economic reform with measured defense modernization. By avoiding excessive militarization while investing in essential capabilities, Bangladesh seeks to maintain stability without provoking regional tension.
The question of a former prime minister residing in India continues to carry potential security implications. If a formal extradition request is pursued, domestic political polarization could intensify. Security agencies would need to manage public demonstrations, media narratives and diplomatic communications carefully. A transparent legal process within constitutional boundaries would be essential to prevent escalation. Regional stability depends not only on interstate relations but also on internal political cohesion.
Ultimately, Bangladesh’s defense modernization is guided by pragmatism rather than ambition. The objective is to secure borders, protect maritime interests and contribute to regional peacekeeping initiatives. Participation in United Nations peacekeeping missions remains a source of international recognition and professional experience for Bangladeshi forces. Continued engagement in such missions reinforces the country’s image as a responsible international actor.
As regional dynamics evolve, Bangladesh’s challenge will be to sustain a balanced posture. Strategic patience, diversified partnerships and investment in human capital within the armed forces will shape long term security outcomes. By aligning defense policy with economic development and diplomatic equilibrium, the new government aims to strengthen national resilience while maintaining constructive relations with Pakistan, India and China.
Defense and economic cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh includes agricultural products, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and machinery.
Looking toward the future, Bangladesh’s new government faces a decisive phase in shaping the country’s regional and global posture. The interaction between economic reform, defense modernization and diplomatic balance will determine whether Bangladesh consolidates its position as a stable and influential South Asian state. Regional geopolitics is undergoing gradual transformation, with intensifying competition in the Indian Ocean, evolving supply chains and shifting alliances. In this environment, Bangladesh must pursue a strategy rooted in national interest, economic pragmatism and strategic restraint.
If the government succeeds in completing infrastructure and energy projects on schedule, the cumulative economic impact could be substantial. Expanded port capacity, improved highways and modernized rail connectivity would strengthen Bangladesh’s integration into regional trade corridors. Enhanced logistics performance would reduce export delays and transaction costs. Diversification of exports beyond garments into pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, information technology services and agro processing would reduce vulnerability to global market fluctuations. Sustainable growth above 7 percent annually could elevate Bangladesh into upper middle income status within the coming decade, provided fiscal discipline and governance reforms are maintained.
Regional economic diplomacy will remain central to this transformation. With Pakistan, incremental expansion of trade and educational exchanges can gradually normalize historical sensitivities. Academic collaboration, cultural programs and business forums may soften public perceptions shaped by past conflict. In the long term, stable economic interdependence can reduce political mistrust. However, both sides must avoid rhetoric that reopens historical wounds. Constructive engagement requires consistency and sensitivity.
With India, the long term trajectory will depend on mutual respect and transparency. Bangladesh benefits from connectivity projects and access to the large Indian market. India benefits from transit routes and economic integration with its northeastern states. If both governments maintain equality in negotiations and avoid interference in domestic politics, bilateral cooperation can mature into a durable partnership. However, should perceptions of dominance re emerge, domestic resistance within Bangladesh could constrain policymakers. The sustainability of this relationship therefore rests upon political maturity and balanced agreements.
China’s role in Bangladesh’s development strategy is likely to remain significant. Continued participation in infrastructure and industrial projects under the Belt and Road framework may accelerate modernization. Yet careful debt management will be crucial to avoid long term financial strain. Transparent contract terms, competitive bidding processes and diversified financing sources can protect economic sovereignty. Bangladesh’s objective is not alignment with one power bloc but rather utilization of opportunities offered by multiple partners. Strategic diversification reduces dependence and strengthens bargaining capacity.
The broader regional balance of power will also influence Bangladesh’s choices. Rising strategic competition in the Indo Pacific could pressure smaller states to align more clearly with one side. Bangladesh’s diplomatic skill will be tested in resisting binary choices. A policy of principled neutrality, combined with active economic engagement, may offer the most sustainable path. By emphasizing development, climate resilience and humanitarian cooperation, Bangladesh can project a constructive regional identity rather than a confrontational one.
The potential return of a former prime minister residing in India remains a sensitive issue with long term implications. If managed within transparent legal procedures and bilateral consultation, it need not derail broader cooperation. However, politicization of the matter could inflame public sentiment and create diplomatic strain. Responsible leadership on both sides would require restraint, adherence to legal norms and avoidance of inflammatory rhetoric. Stability in South Asia often depends upon careful handling of such symbolic issues.
Internally, governance reform will shape external credibility. Combating corruption, strengthening financial regulation and ensuring judicial independence enhance investor confidence and diplomatic leverage. A strong domestic institutional framework enables balanced foreign policy. Economic resilience reduces vulnerability to external pressure. Defense modernization grounded in fiscal responsibility prevents excessive debt accumulation. Thus, internal reform and external balance are inseparable components of national strategy.
Bangladesh’s long term vision appears oriented toward becoming a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. Enhanced connectivity with regional corridors, maritime trade routes and digital networks could position the country as a commercial hub. Realizing this ambition requires stable relations with Pakistan, India and China simultaneously. None of these relationships can be neglected without strategic cost.
In conclusion, Bangladesh’s new government stands at a pivotal moment. Through measured diplomacy, diversified economic partnerships and prudent defense modernization, it can strengthen sovereignty while contributing to regional stability. Relations with Pakistan may gradually improve through trade and security dialogue. Engagement with India will depend upon equality and mutual respect. Cooperation with China will remain important for infrastructure and defense development, provided financial sustainability is ensured.
If balance, transparency and national interest remain guiding principles, Bangladesh can emerge as a confident and prosperous state. By upholding mutual respect and constructive engagement with Pakistan, India and China, the country can safeguard its independence, enhance economic growth and reinforce regional peace for the long term.
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