(Publish from Houston Texas USA)
(By: Mian Iftikhar Ahmad)
Emerging Leadership, Political Competition, and Coalition Realities
Pakistan’s current political landscape stands at a delicate yet decisive juncture where past experiences, present political compromises, and future power struggles are deeply intertwined. At the center of this scenario, the most debated question is whether Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari can realistically emerge as future prime ministers of Pakistan. If they can, what political forces, obstacles, and compromises will shape their paths? Alongside this, it is equally important to examine what roles Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif, and Asif Ali Zardari are likely to play in the coming years; how tensions between Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto unfolded in the past and eventually transformed into an undeclared ceasefire; what the post-by-election seat ratio in the National Assembly indicates; whether the Pakistan Peoples Party genuinely has the capacity or intention to bring down the government; and, above all, what role the establishment may play in shaping the next phase of Pakistan’s political order. These questions cannot be answered in isolation or with simplistic conclusions; they require a continuous and holistic understanding of Pakistan’s political context.
To begin with, the prospects of Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto becoming prime minister highlight the emergence of a new generation of leadership within Pakistan’s two major political parties. Maryam Nawaz, by assuming the office of Chief Minister of Punjab, has stepped into a position of real executive authority, administrative control, and political accountability. Punjab, often described as the power center of Pakistani politics due to its population and parliamentary weight, provides a natural launchpad for any leader aspiring to national office. Successful governance in Punjab strengthens Maryam Nawaz’s credentials as a future prime minister and reinforces her standing within the Pakistan Muslim League (N). Within the party itself, there is a growing perception that Nawaz Sharif’s role will increasingly shift from direct executive ambition to that of a guiding elder and strategic decision-maker, while the party’s future electoral face could well be Maryam Nawaz.
In contrast, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has positioned himself as a young but ideologically driven national leader, actively participating in parliamentary debates, foreign policy discussions, and federal politics. Despite this visibility, his political stronghold remains largely confined to Sindh. The Pakistan Peoples Party’s persistent weakness in Punjab remains its greatest structural disadvantage. As a result, Bilawal Bhutto’s path to the prime ministership would almost certainly depend on either a broad-based political alliance or an extraordinary political crisis that reshapes the electoral landscape. In the near future, if the PML-N government maintains stability and delivers relative economic and administrative performance, Maryam Nawaz’s prospects of becoming prime minister appear significantly stronger than those of Bilawal Bhutto.
Turning to the senior leadership, Nawaz Sharif once again occupies the role of a political patriarch rather than an active contender for executive power. Although he may no longer seek the office of prime minister directly, his influence over party ideology, strategic direction, and major decisions remains substantial. Shehbaz Sharif, as the incumbent Prime Minister, plays the central role in managing the state apparatus, holding together a complex coalition, and maintaining a delicate balance with the establishment. His political style emphasizes administration, pragmatism, and compromise rather than confrontation, which has contributed to his acceptability among powerful state institutions.
Asif Ali Zardari, serving as President of Pakistan, continues to demonstrate his traditional strengths in political maneuvering and consensus-building. He operates simultaneously within the constitutional framework and behind the scenes, safeguarding the interests of the Pakistan Peoples Party while maintaining leverage over the federal government. His unique position allows the PPP to be part of the government without fully dissolving its independent political identity. This dual posture enables the party to exert pressure from within the system rather than from outright opposition.
The past tensions between Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto were, in essence, an early manifestation of competition between two parties preparing their next-generation leadership for national dominance. Sharp statements, parliamentary walkouts, and verbal clashes in the media reflected a deeper struggle over political space and future relevance. However, this confrontation gradually transformed into an undeclared ceasefire when both sides realized that sustained conflict would primarily benefit third forces rather than themselves. The imperatives of government survival, constitutional continuity, and severe economic pressures compelled both the PML-N and the PPP to temporarily freeze their differences. This understanding explains why, despite ongoing criticism, neither party allows disputes to escalate beyond a certain threshold.
The Establishment’s Role and Pakistan’s Transitional Politics
The results of recent by-elections further reinforce the prevailing political reality. The Pakistan Muslim League (N) emerged as the clear winner in most constituencies, demonstrating electoral resilience and organizational strength. The Pakistan Peoples Party achieved limited success, while candidates associated with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or aligned independents failed to secure significant breakthroughs. In the National Assembly, the ruling coalition currently enjoys a near two-thirds majority, with PML-N as the largest party, PPP as the second major coalition partner, and additional support from MQM, PML-Q, and smaller groups. The opposition largely comprises the Sunni Ittehad Council, JUI-F, and a handful of other parties.
This numerical dominance raises the critical question of whether the Pakistan Peoples Party can realistically bring down the government. While PPP’s withdrawal could complicate governance and reduce the coalition’s comfort margin, a complete collapse of the government does not appear to align with PPP’s own interests. Exiting the coalition could inadvertently strengthen PTI or empower non-electoral actors, while the PPP itself is not currently positioned to secure a federal majority through fresh elections. Consequently, the party’s strategy seems focused on extracting maximum political and constitutional concessions while remaining within the government framework rather than triggering its downfall.
In this entire equation, the role of the establishment remains the most sensitive and decisive factor. Unlike earlier periods of overt intervention, the establishment currently appears inclined toward maintaining balance and stability rather than directly shaping political outcomes. Its primary concerns revolve around political continuity, economic recovery, and managing international pressures. From this perspective, a government that completes its term, cooperates with international financial institutions, and minimizes internal chaos is preferable. Should serious conflict arise between the PML-N and PPP, the establishment is more likely to act as a mediator than as an explicit supporter of any single political faction.
Overall, Pakistan’s politics is undergoing a transitional phase in which the old guard is gradually receding and new leadership is cautiously stepping forward. Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto symbolize this generational shift, yet the ultimate key to power still lies in a complex blend of parliamentary numbers, economic performance, coalition management, and relations with the establishment. The coming years are therefore likely to prove decisive, determining whether power genuinely transfers to a new generation or whether traditional politics continues under new faces and familiar structures.
For more reading please visit our Articles.
